- 2nd avenue subway is a grotesque example
- Planning fallacy (Kahneman Tversky): people underestimate amount of time a project will take even while knowing other data points
Optimism bias is positive! Leads to happiness. Just need to be aware of
- Leads to imagining scenario where things go right and dismissing scenario where things go wrong
- Coordination neglect: underestimating overhead of coordination when adding ppl to group
- Procrastination stems from poor impulse control
- Avoid state of continuous partial attention
- Use reference class forecasting: ignore your project. Look at similar projects.